El Nino 2015-16

An El Nino in strengthening slowly and is likely to be stronger than any of the recent events, You need to go back to 1991-92 season to find a good match to the current climate forecasts. The growing season in the East of the country is likely to be hotter and drier than normal. Challenges for growers will vary. For instance dry diseases likely Powdery mildew for grapes and pipfruit. Sunburn for Pipfruit.

Metris forecasts this season will have the addition of Powdery mildew model for Grapes. Irrigation forecast deficits based on monthly PET factors for main Horticultural Crops

Forecasts method

metris forecasts are 'specific'. Metris forecasts are comfortable with being wrong on occations, rather than being general and uninformative. You won't find the words 'possible showers with a low risk of rain' in our forecast. Our detailed forecasts are crafted from high resolution forecast models, we run our own WRF nmm mesoscale model as well over the first 5days of our forecasts. An Upgrade to nmm B is likely this Winter.

Metris advantage is also in the fact that our forecast has Horticultural training, as we forecast disease risk for a range of crops makes gives us another significant edge.

Given we are working in an increasingly 'web based' age ... Metris has in house web authoring ability. PHP, mysql, html ... xml. The website is a responsive design ... that is it adapts to your devise ... cell phone, ipad, android ... windows for mobile ... and good old desktop ... it just works.

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Daily forecasting starting Tuesday 4th for Hawkes Bay and Gisborne. Look at the rambling video below which gives an indication of the high quality information coming off the mesoscale model ... a preview of the meteogram that we will have out shortly. I will do a shorter version of the video.

Meteogram (graph

Website changes
- Contact page with email form. New subscription form coming.

- Metris is runing a WRF nmm mesoscale model. What difference will this make? Significantly up-grades the forecast resolutions. Our Global model data is 0.5 degrees (55km) grid. Metris WRF will have operational 6.1km grid over 120hr (5days). Metris also intends to do 1hr interpolation over a shorter period. This will have significant benefits with FROST forecasting.